Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)

Abstract. The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of (∼2.4 million people) Managua (∼1.4 people), respectively. In this study we present novel opening probability maps for these complexes, which based multi-model approach that relies kernel density estimators. particular, thematic maps, i.e., consider different hazardous phenomena separately, lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic currents, ejection ballistic projectiles, low-intensity fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) location past vents, (2) mapping main fault structures, (3) styles events, obtained from critical analysis literature and/or inferred deposits morphological features observed remotely field. To illustrate effects considering expected construction focus currents derived phreatomagmatic activity or magmatic volcanism. For numerical simulation adopted recently developed branching energy cone model using program ECMapProb. results show implementation can produce significantly hazard levels those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps.